Forecast Bust, '07 Hurricane Season
posted 5:20 pm Mon November 26, 2007 - Charleston
Doctor William Gray of Colorado State University and other hurricane forecasters predicted a very active 2007 season. The end of the hurricane season is Friday, and this years actual number of hurricanes fell short of the initial predictions.
“Leading into this season, it looked like it was going to be an above normal season,” said Michael Emlaw Meteorologist in Charge, Charleston National Weather Service Office.
Currently there is a buoy sitting offshore in the Gulf Stream registering 77 degrees for the water temperature. That's pretty warm for this time of the year, and warm water temperature is one of the variables that go into the seasonal hurricane forecasts.
“Wind shear, that's an important player, and El Nino or La Nina which ever is dominant and how strong can play a key part in that as well,” said Emlaw.
“What was difficult to forecast was the wind shear, and it seems like the wind shear was a little stronger this year, than we had expected, and again that's very difficult to forecast that far in advance,” said Dr.Lee Lindner, Director of Meteorology, College of Charleston.
The forecast fell four minimal hurricanes short, and three major hurricanes short of most predicted numbers. With such large inaccuracies, why make those long-range seasonal forecasts?
"I think seasonal outlooks are good to get people prepared to make sure they have a plan. To encourage them to have a plan, and to go through the steps of what they should do if there was a watch or a warning issued,” said Emlaw.
“If you wait until a few days before the hurricane comes here, all the ply wood is going to be gone. All the water is going to be gone. You're going to have trouble getting the supplies you need,” added Lindner.
We are in the infancy of seasonal hurricane forecasting, and with better computer models, forecasts will become more accurate in the future. That initial outlook can always be used as a reminder to get ready for a potential storm.
“It doesn't matter really whether the outlook is for a busy season or a quiet season. It takes one storm to impact your area and it's been a bad season,” said Emlaw.
The quiet hurricane season with one devastating landfall most meteorologists and south Floridians remember was, 1992 when Hurricane Andrew came ashore.
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